Northeast Winter 2025–2026 Forecast: Weather, Energy Prices & Why Now Is the Time to Lock In Rates
If you felt last winter’s sting, you’re not alone. After surprise cold snaps drove wholesale electricity prices up by more than 300% in New England, many business owners across the Northeast were left scrambling to keep budgets on track. This year, the big question is the same: what’s ahead for winter 2025–2026—and how will it hit your energy bills?
The short answer = forecasts disagree, prices are already climbing, and the smartest move is to lock in protection before the first cold front arrives.
What the Almanacs Are Saying
Two of the most popular long-range forecasters can’t quite agree—again:
Farmers’ Almanac: Predicts a “dramatic winter” with cycles of bitter cold, brief thaws, and renewed snow. For the Northeast, that could mean sharp cold snaps in mid-January and mid-February, with winter dragging on longer than usual.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Sees “mostly mild, pockets of wild”—with warmer-than-average temps overall, but sudden Arctic blasts throughout December, January, and February.
Translation: Don’t expect consistency. Expect volatility—calm stretches broken up by the kind of winter punches that throw off budgets and planning.
Science vs. Folklore: The Role of ENSO
Beyond folklore, scientists point to ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) as a key driver.
Current outlook: ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely this winter, with just a 21.8% chance of La Niña.
What that means: Without a strong El Niño or La Niña steering the ship, the Northeast is more exposed to extremes—mild one week, frigid the next.
Lessons From Last Winter
Winter 2024–2025 was the coldest New England had seen in over a decade. Average temps ran 0.6°F below normal from December through February.
That cold drove:
Natural gas price spikes of +184% in December, +120% in January, and +319% in February.
Wholesale electricity prices that doubled from the prior year.
Those who had locked into fixed-rate contracts? They rode out the storm with their budgets intact.
Why Now Is the Time to Act
We’re in the “shoulder season” (August–October)—when energy markets are typically calmest. Once heating demand surges, prices do too.
Locking in now provides protection against volatility.
A neutral ENSO makes forecasts less reliable, meaning surprises are more likely.
Market trends are already pointing upward for 2026.
Waiting until the first snowflake could mean paying 15–30% more all winter.
Neighborhood Energy: Protecting You Against the Unexpected
Think back to last winter—those sudden cold mornings, the news about price spikes, and the scramble to keep expenses under control. That doesn’t have to happen again.
Whether you manage a commercial property portfolio, a manufacturing facility, or a multi-site business, Neighborhood Energy can help you:
Secure low, fixed-rate energy contracts before winter bites.
Build a risk management strategy tailored to your operations.
Gain peace of mind, no matter what the weather—or the market—throws at you.
Don’t let another unpredictable Northeast winter catch you off guard. Let’s lock in your rates while the market is still on your side.