One Year In: How Trump’s Energy Agenda Is Shaping Prices in the Northeast — and What It Means for Your Energy Budget
As we approach one year under President Trump’s second term, U.S. energy policy has taken a distinctly different direction — one that emphasizes production growth, exports, and infrastructure expansion. Whether you support or question these changes, the reality is that they’re already influencing market dynamics and, by extension, the rates that Northeast consumers are paying for electricity and natural gas.
Here’s a practical look at what’s changed, what’s coming next, and what steps energy decision-makers can take to stay ahead.
A Shift Toward “Energy Expansion”
Over the past twelve months, the administration has rolled back a number of federal initiatives that supported renewable energy development while accelerating efforts to expand domestic oil and gas production. The guiding theme is “energy dominance,” which centers on U.S. self-sufficiency and stronger export capacity.
Among the key moves:
Eased permitting for oil and gas infrastructure, including pipeline and export projects.
Scaled-back federal support for renewable energy projects, shifting responsibility to state-level programs.
New investment incentives for fossil fuel production and modernization.
Perhaps the most notable shift is in liquefied natural gas (LNG). New export terminals are moving forward at a steady pace, and according to Yale E360, U.S. LNG exports are expected to double by 2028. August 2025 already marked a record 9.3 million tons of LNG exported — a sign of how quickly export demand is growing.
While this strengthens America’s role in global energy markets, it also influences domestic supply and pricing — especially in regions like New England, where infrastructure constraints limit the flow of gas.
What It Means for the Northeast
The Northeast energy market has always operated a bit differently from the rest of the country. Our geography, older grid infrastructure, and colder winters create unique challenges that can amplify the effects of national policy shifts. Here’s how the current trends are playing out locally:
Tighter Natural Gas Balances:
As more U.S. gas is exported overseas, less is available domestically — particularly during peak demand months. In the Northeast, where winter constraints are common, that can mean higher volatility in wholesale gas prices.Electricity Prices Tracking Gas Markets:
Because natural gas fuels a large portion of New England’s power generation, electricity prices often rise and fall with gas. Increased export activity can create upward pressure on both markets, especially in Q4 and Q1.Renewable Development Slowdown:
With fewer federal incentives, renewable growth has cooled slightly. That’s not necessarily negative long-term — it may simply shift the center of activity to state programs and private-sector initiatives.Increased Price Spread:
National benchmark prices (like Henry Hub) don’t always reflect what buyers in the Northeast pay. As infrastructure bottlenecks persist, local basis differentials could widen, even if national gas prices stay relatively stable.
Opportunities and Risks Ahead
For producers and infrastructure developers, the policy shift brings new opportunities to invest and expand. For consumers, the focus should be on managing exposure to volatility rather than predicting political outcomes.
Natural gas markets have remained relatively low compared to historic averages, but with exports ramping up and domestic production growth leveling off, analysts are watching for potential tightness in the 2025–2026 winter.
Similarly, forward electricity prices in ISO-NE (New England’s power market) have shown mild upward movement — not dramatic, but consistent with tightening gas fundamentals.
In short: the market isn’t in crisis, but it’s less predictable than it was a year ago.
Smart Moves for Energy Buyers
For businesses, schools, and property managers, staying proactive is key. Here are a few steps we recommend:
Lock in competitive fixed rates before the winter heating season, when volatility can increase.
Evaluate contract terms — especially swing, pass-through, and bandwidth clauses — to avoid hidden exposure.
Explore load management opportunities through demand response or smart scheduling.
Leverage state-level programs that still provide meaningful incentives for solar, efficiency, and electrification.
Stay informed — market shifts are happening faster than in recent years, and timing can make a significant difference in costs.
Looking Forward
As federal energy policy continues to evolve, one thing remains constant: the Northeast will feel the effects first. Between LNG export growth, renewable program adjustments, and infrastructure challenges, the region’s energy costs will continue to reflect both domestic and global forces.
At Neighborhood Energy, our focus remains simple — helping clients navigate this changing environment with clarity, data, and confidence. Whether prices rise or stabilize, the best results always come from informed, proactive planning.